Damage Control

And let the games begin.

So I posted a little introduction piece on Kelly Pavlik and his trials and tribulations, briefly. But before I begin to throw out some analysis let me first say that I really don’t have much of a format worked out for how I’ll brake down fights on a “blogging” basis so there’s really no template in place. The reason I mention it is because in prior coverage of fights I worked out of a mold using tables listing weight, height, (all the vitals), records, past opponents and on and on and on…. But this is a tad different so excuse me if it feels like I’m kind of winging it on my first go-around. Ok, enough of that. Let’s get right down to business.

A lot of attention has been given to Kelly Pavlik (36-1-0, 32 KOs) in the past few months. From a nasty staph infection on his right hand (which washed a highly anticipated fight against Paul Williams away) to repairing his image after dropping a lopsided bout against veteran Bernard Hopkins back in 2008, it hasn’t been easy being Kelly. But this guy is a gifted fighter, one that has the innate ability to climb right back into the ring.

But there’s another side to this coin. His name is Sergio Gabriel Martinez (44-2-2, 24 KOs), and don’t expect the younger Pavlik (Pavlik is 28 and Martinez is 35) to just walk right through his opponent en route to the WBO middleweight title.

Martinez might just be the fastest light middleweight (or junior middleweight – however you want to refer to it as) in boxing today. He fights out of the southpaw stance, which I love, and if anyone wants to question his heart then just rewind back to the wildness that ensued on the Boardwalk of Atlantic City last year against the crafty left-hander, Paul Williams. Even though Martinez lost one heck of a close majority decision it reminded us expect the unexpected, especially inside the ring involving two warriors.

The obvious is that Pavlik is around 3 ½-inches taller then Martinez, packs a whole lot of power for a guy that looks pretty lanky from afar and can not only handout punishment but also takes it pretty well. Kelly is fighting in his comfort zone, at just around 160 pounds, which should also weigh in his favor. If there’s one fact worth mentioning it’s that Martinez is no stranger to the middleweight division as that razor thin loss against Williams proved.

For Martinez to continue climbing the ranks as one of boxing’s elite in the 21st century he’s going to make it a must to stick and move. Speed will be his friend and against Pavlik there’s no other way to victory lane. If there’s one thing we can turn to as evidence supporting Martinez and the skill of speed it’s that Pavlik was dismantled by Bernard Hopkins. How? By moving. Pavlik was so frustrated by the moving target that Hopkins presented that evening he literally exposed himself to short left hooks which helped the “Executioner” open up on power combinations. In short, speed killed Kelly and that’s what Martinez will look to do.

And now I’ll leave it up to the fans to debate and the fight on Saturday to prove. If you’re heading to your local betting parlor know that Pavlik is currently on the board as $1.80 ‘chalk’ (bet $180 to make $100) at most books while Martinez is sitting in the dog house at +150 (bet $100 to make $150). If you want to get a bit more fancy in your wagering tactics then a round prop (picking whether the fight ends before or surpasses the round supplied by Vegas books) of 11 ½ has been published. Basically everyone and their mother is looking for this fight to go the distance. The payout is -135 (bet $135 to make $100) if you think the fight will end before the middle of the 11th round (before one minute and thirty second in that 11th round) and the ‘over’ is looking to payout -105 (or bet $105 to make $100).

Final Prediction: Kelly Pavlik’s height advantage, snapping jabs and eventually a salvo of power shots to be released will put Sergio Martinez’s ass on the mat (maybe more then once). The height advantage is just too significant for the Argentinean fighter to make up for. Martinez should see a bit more opportunity come his way if he makes this a fight (but at 35 time is surely not on his side), but this will be Pavlik’s night. I feel that Pavlik has a lot to prove on the road to recovering his image so I’m also looking for a knockout here before 11 ½-rounds. What do you guys and girls think? Let me know!

Back to Work

Although his last fight was back in December of ‘09 it almost feels like Kelly Pavlik hasn’t stepped into the ring in years. Maybe it’s because his last big time opponent was Bernard Hopkins at the end of 2008. And if you just woke up from a long induced comma for almost two years then you should know that the “Executioner” completely dismantled an otherwise untouched and unmolested Pavlik before this fight was nationally broadcasted. You have to understand that Pavlik had racked up 10 KOs in 11 prior fights and was a perfect 34-0-0 before entering the ring in Atlantic City with Hopkins. He was on top of the world in his profession. His highlights as the up-and-coming star in the ring included a convincing TKO win over hard hitting Edison Miranda which looked to be a slugfest from the beginning followed by back-to-back victories over Jermain Taylor (ok, so Jermain was already beginning to tumble but that’s not the point).

But just as Pavlik’s stardom began to take flight it abruptly crashed and burned. It wasn’t the loss to Hopkins, as all great fighters must experience the ‘L’ on their records eventually, but a hand injury which ultimately cancelled a much anticipated meeting against the most avoided fighter in boxing today, Paul Williams. That unfortunate injury coupled with negative press attention about his personal life and his fellow ruff neck Youngstown, Ohio fan base jumping off the bandwagon seemed to have derailed Pavlik’s image as one of boxing’s shinning stars.

Personally, I have always rooted for the blue collar fighter that Pavlik is and the city of Youngstown he represent. It just makes me feel American all over. He’s a brawler and he can take a punch with the best of them. Has he been exposed? Absolutely! But that doesn’t mean we've seen the last, or even the best, from "The Ghost".

Stay tuned for a fight preview including insight into this Saturday’s match against No. 4 middleweight ranked Sergio Martinez. Until then…

Welcome

So I figured since I've been out of the sports writing business for a few months now (at least writing as a daily diet) why not hop on the train, albeit a little late in the game, and begin posting some of my own blogs. Now the plan is to stick with my bread and butter which happens to be the coverage, prediction, betting aspects and any other word I can think of on the sport of boxing. Sure, there's a million and one sites out there dedicated to the sport, but my belief is the more the merrier (especially at a time when boxing has fallen by the waist side in terms of U.S. popularity). As many others have said before, "do what makes you happy" and there's not a doubt in my mind that boxing fits into that catagory. So without further ado, let's see what controversy I can stir up, what facts and figures I can bring to the table and finally, what formula I can figure out in text that will bring questions and comments to the table.

I hope you will enjoy the banter.